http://www.ted.com Inventor, entrepreneur and visionary Ray Kurzweil explains in abundant, grounded detail why, by the 2020s, we will have reverse-engineered…
Ray Kurzweil: The accelerating power of technology
Thanks! Share it with your friends!
- Rating:
- Views:191,738 views
- Tags: -
- Categories: Videos
Ray’s 2007 book predicts human brain simulation in 2013. Did he have some inside information? The human brain project just won €1 billion funding.
Make friends with a computer today. Tomorrow it might be too late!
Guys Send me Some Ray Kurzwell Stuff on My Gmail “Kennyphenom@gmail.com”
Thats My E-mail
Be Helpfull send me Some Stuff.
Thanks Guys
Ok Im only 12 and even Im enjoying this Im doing research and im Doing it on Computers.
I think This guy is amazing and how he Can kinda (Predict) What computers Or “Nano Cells” are gonna be in 10, to 5, Years Theyr Gonna be making it so u can Freaking upload memory Off of a computer and put it Into Your own head.
Thats So Freaking Cool i Think This guy is The Freaking Futer < ——- Cant Spell
But seriously This guy is a Freaking Genius.
That’s the problem. When China and India become developed they will adopt a way of life similar to America and then they will be burning a lot of energy per person too. I personally don’t think it’s that much of a problem – for some things, such as oil, it is (but we’ll run out of that sooner or later anyway and there are already alternative solutions) but for the most part it wouldn’t be a problem if everyone on Earth consumed as much as Americans currently do.
OTOH with more things having been invented it can become harder to invent something new – because all the easy/obvious (with the technology you currently have) inventions have been already done and you haven’t progressed enough yet to be able to tackle the more difficult ones. It may be that the curves are not really exponential as Kurzweil says but they are something like the logistic curve. Kurzweil focuses on new technology – for that the logistic curve would look like an exponential one.
Packing more power into the device is truly important if your problem is lack of power in the device. For today’s mobile devices though, the most important thing that limits their use is the interface – they have enough power for any application that could be run on a PC few years ago; their main limitation compared to PCs (including the older, less powerful PCs) is the limited interface that’s caused by the small size of the mobile devices.
You pack more power into the device because that is what is truly important.
Give this man an Alka Seltzer. His constant inwards burping was really distracting from the talk.
Give this man an Alka Seltzer. His comsta Really distracting from his talk.
Slowed so much he was just hired by Google to run a huge project there. I’m much more inclined to think he’s learned how to present a lot better than this early stuff.
Yes if you read his books, he’s always been pretty consistent on the years and I think he did mean 2020.
His mind has really slowed in the few years since this video.
Im inclined to think he meant 2020 and not 2010. I think this because shortly after he talks about 2029. A jump from 2020 predictions to 2029 predictions was probably what he was trying to get at and not 2010 to 2029. Most likely a verbal typo on his part…… or he’s a futuristic loony who has no idea what hes talking about… whichever floats your boat.
His short term predictions at 19:48 turned out to be so ridiculously optimistic and wrong, it’s hard to believe his long term predictions will somehow be more accurate.
If you swallowed 50+ supplements for longevity per day, you’d be burping, too. Small price to pay for potential bridge toward immortality.
The american way of life burns a lot more energy than chineses or indians do.
I wish he would stop burping while giving a TED talk.
Utopian rosy futurist nonsense. If we could convert just 0.3% of the sunlight reaching the earth to clean energy…. that would just free billions of humans to ravage some other part of the planet. Does anyone really think 1.5 billion Chinese and Indians can live at the same level as US citizens in California and not destroy the planet regardless of how much clean energy, solar scooters and internet service jobs they have? TED people live in lotus-la-la land.
maybe not, as in we he probably meant the technology would be there but not for the public….im sure the military has had such technology since at least 2010
he meant 2020,it happens
he’s not wrong all that technology is available now just for tens of thousands of dollars
but in 2019 they’ll be like $100 
he is over-optimistic. there are other factors such as culture, politics, religion, etc. that slow technological and scientific growth. also sometimes, some potential technologies are shelved for more promising short term business benefits. also intel is slowing down its curve because, the end of moores law is staring right at their face and they want to make the most out of what is left.
well he predicted 2010 wrong..
Anyone ever seen the matrix, lmfao.
If immortality is indeed invented at some point a serious problem will appear: new people will still continue to be born but the old ones will not be dying. One “solution” to that is that people stop having kids and the world will become one big retirement home. Is that what we really want, keep the old folks forever and have very few if any young ones? Another solution is something like the cruel system in the movie On Time where people earn time to live like money. Neither of these look good.
its 2012 and i dont have retina encoding glasses yet??
I thought it was common sence about technology? Having more advanced technology allows you to advance faster. I’ve always thought this.
in the future, thanks to the wonders of exponential growth, we will get all of our power from one solar panel that is the size of an atom. One atom, ladies and gentlemen.
Possibly some would be as you say where emotions as we understand them would be considered primitive functions while others would have them amplified beyond our ability to comprehend. I think great divisions will occur within our society.
Or many of those things could be amplified, with our conceivably increased mental and physical abilities. As you are saying there is no way to tell with our currently limited mental capabilities. I would imagine however that the very concepts of limitations and boundaries would be a foreign thing and there would be radical differences between average people as we would understand it.
“… A WORKER RACE OUT OF US AND SUPER HUMANS OUT OF VERY FEW.” ~That’s assuming there will be individuals to exploit. Our current perspective can’t be applied, where there are boundaries and limitations to consciousness. I see the future as a dull place (to us), where the primal emotions are disabled. Hunger, pain, depression, euphoria, excitement, boredom, love, agony… will all be disabled and considered an unnecessary vestigial feature.
Ray is RIGHT on course. His problem is his predictions are proving lately, (the last 12 years) to be about 4-6 years too early.
Overall however, he is indeed the leading tech prophet of our time.
“WATCH THE DARK SIDE OF SYNTHETIC TECHNOLOGY. THESE ADVANCES WILL CREATE A WORKER RACE OUT OF US AND SUPER HUMANS OUT OF VERY , VERY FEW.”, thats pretty much how it is today man, you raise a very good point though.
for immortal. And I want to be immortal.
So?? You and I have two options:
1) Make enough money to become almost literal gods, before the drawbridge is pulled up, if you get my meaning.
Or…
2) Try to stop this from happening (Get ourselves killed.)
I’m smart, I’m just saying, so, yeah, the first option is worth a shot. What will you be doing in 100 years??? That’s the question, my friend. Good luck, godspeed. Money is quite literally the key, it will allow us to buy life pretty son. Sorry, but it’s true. Rich wil soon b a synonym
this guy is talking about hybrd organisms that will take over our bodies by 2029. he says these nano size crystals that reproduce asexualy infinitly. their dropping on us through chemtraals.
WATCH THE DARK SIDE OF SYNTHETIC TECHNOLOGY. THESE ADVANCES WILL CREATE A WORKER RACE OUT OF US AND SUPER HUMANS OUT OF VERY , VERY FEW.
THIER WILL BE A GREAT AWAKENING AND NO SINGULARITY. SORRY BUT OUR UFO FRIENDS ARE WATCHING THIS FUCKUP AND WONT LET US INFECT THE UNIVERSE
I suggest you read up on emerging technologies such as the Oculus rift and leap motion as a the new direction for computing interfaces. We keep viewing technology in a linear way, you speak of Windows like it were some industry standard as established as the combustion engine. 20 years ago everything was largely DOS based, and windows was not widely adopted until at least 3.11 and 95. And hence established the mouse as the preferred tool for OSes. 20 years from now things may be very different.
Besides, in mobile phones / portable computers, miniaturization has already reached a point when it can’t go much further without limiting usability. Look at the iPad: it’s actually *larger* than the iPhone. We’re able make a powerful and very small computer right now but the problem is: how are you gonna use it if it’s so small? Current user interfaces use the surface of the device to communicate with the user; a small device has little surface so the UI sucks. It has already hit the wall.
He ignores a very important issue: even though we might have all kinds of technology at the experimental level pretty soon, that doesn’t mean it will replace the current widely used technology. PCs are not going to suddenly disappear. We use them because they’re the established standard with heaps of compatible HW and SW available. For the same reasons almost everyone still uses Windows. This isn’t going to suddenly change. Once a platform is well established, we’re locked in it to some degree.
How is the continual miniaturization of computing a new technology? He is merely stating that this will continue and we will have atom sized computing in the next decade or so. This is not a new trend its just projecting what is already happening. The reason people find this so alarming is because technology is exponential and everybody is trying to predict things on a linear basis. If you asked someone in 1990 if we would have smartphones they would laugh at you and say maybe by 2030.